Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, July 14, 2011
River flow3.88 ft
Actual · 07/14/2011
3.88 ft; discharge 3,170 cfs
USGS daily
07/14 average
2.47 ft; discharge 1,413 cfs
20-year USGS
Above average by 1.41 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 77° / 45°F · 0.15" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 07/14 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2011
77° / 45°F · 0.15"
07/14 average
80° / 37°F · 0.04"
18 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2011
80° / 57°F · 0.05"
07/14 average
87° / 52°F · 0.01"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 07/14 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 07/14 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds0.54% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 07/14 launch
0.54%
70% below season avg 1.79% (−1.25 pts)
First-choice applications
559
Private launches available
3
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Thursdays: 2.10%, about 1 in 48
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.