Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, July 17, 2011
River flow3.53 ft
Actual · 07/17/2011
3.53 ft; discharge 2,610 cfs
USGS daily
07/17 average
2.36 ft; discharge 1,283 cfs
20-year USGS
Above average by 1.17 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 79° / 31°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 07/17 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2011
79° / 31°F · 0.00"
07/17 average
82° / 36°F · 0.01"
18 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2011
87° / 51°F · 0.00"
07/17 average
88° / 53°F · 0.04"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 07/17 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 07/17 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds1.40% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 07/17 launch
1.40%
22% below season avg 1.79% (−0.39 pts)
First-choice applications
215
Private launches available
3
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Sundays: 1.78%, about 1 in 56
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.