Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, July 27, 2011
River flow2.82 ft
Actual · 07/27/2011
2.82 ft; discharge 1,680 cfs
USGS daily
07/27 average
2.11 ft; discharge 1,017 cfs
20-year USGS
Above average by 0.71 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 75° / 28°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 07/27 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2011
75° / 28°F · 0.00"
07/27 average
81° / 37°F · 0.04"
17 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2011
85° / 50°F · 0.00"
07/27 average
89° / 52°F · 0.02"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 07/27 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 07/27 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds2.56% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 07/27 launch
2.56%
1.4× season avg 1.79% (+0.77 pts)
First-choice applications
156
Private launches available
4
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Wednesdays: 1.90%, about 1 in 53
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.