Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, August 16, 2011
River flow2.24 ft
Actual · 08/16/2011
2.24 ft; discharge 1,070 cfs
USGS daily
08/16 average
1.83 ft; discharge 760 cfs
20-year USGS
Above average by 0.41 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 71° / 24°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 08/16 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2011
71° / 24°F · 0.00"
08/16 average
82° / 32°F · 0.00"
18 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2011
86° / 46°F · 0.00"
08/16 average
86° / 48°F · 0.01"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 08/16 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 08/16 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds20.00% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 08/16 launch
20.00%
11.2× season avg 1.79% (+18.21 pts)
First-choice applications
20
Private launches available
4
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Tuesdays: 1.54%, about 1 in 65
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.