Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, August 26, 2012
River flow1.82 ft
Actual · 08/26/2012
1.82 ft; discharge 809 cfs
USGS daily
08/26 average
1.75 ft; discharge 691 cfs
20-year USGS
Above average by 0.07 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 80° / 31°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 08/26 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2012
80° / 31°F · 0.00"
08/26 average
78° / 32°F · 0.02"
17 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2012
84° / 40°F · 0.00"
08/26 average
82° / 47°F · 0.03"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 08/26 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 08/26 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds8.33% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 08/26 launch
8.33%
4.7× season avg 1.79% (+6.54 pts)
First-choice applications
24
Private launches available
2
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Sundays: 1.78%, about 1 in 56
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.