Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, August 6, 2015
River flow1.72 ft
Actual · 08/06/2015
1.72 ft; discharge 712 cfs
USGS daily
08/06 average
1.96 ft; discharge 870 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.24 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 65° / 43°F · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 08/06 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2015
65° / 43°F
08/06 average
80° / 38°F · 0.02"
19 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2015
66° / 47°F · 0.04"
08/06 average
86° / 52°F · 0.01"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 08/06 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 08/06 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds3.90% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 08/06 launch
3.90%
2.2× season avg 1.79% (+2.11 pts)
First-choice applications
77
Private launches available
3
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Thursdays: 2.10%, about 1 in 48
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.