Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, August 13, 2015
River flow1.56 ft
Actual · 08/13/2015
1.56 ft; discharge 581 cfs
USGS daily
08/13 average
1.88 ft; discharge 799 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.32 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 85° / 38°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 08/13 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2015
85° / 38°F · 0.00"
08/13 average
81° / 34°F · 0.01"
19 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2015
88° / 53°F · 0.23"
08/13 average
86° / 49°F · 0.02"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 08/13 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 08/13 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds8.33% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 08/13 launch
8.33%
4.7× season avg 1.79% (+6.54 pts)
First-choice applications
48
Private launches available
4
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Thursdays: 2.10%, about 1 in 48
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.