Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, August 20, 2015
River flow1.51 ft
Actual · 08/20/2015
1.51 ft; discharge 542 cfs
USGS daily
08/20 average
1.79 ft; discharge 724 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.28 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 76° / 29°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 08/20 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2015
76° / 29°F · 0.00"
08/20 average
80° / 32°F · 0.01"
19 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2015
73° / 45°F · 0.00"
08/20 average
86° / 50°F · 0.01"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 08/20 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 08/20 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds12.12% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 08/20 launch
12.12%
6.8× season avg 1.79% (+10.33 pts)
First-choice applications
33
Private launches available
4
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Thursdays: 2.10%, about 1 in 48
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.