Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, August 23, 2015
River flow1.51 ft
Actual · 08/23/2015
1.51 ft; discharge 520 cfs
USGS daily
08/23 average
1.80 ft; discharge 726 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.29 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 75° / 25°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 08/23 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2015
75° / 25°F · 0.00"
08/23 average
77° / 30°F · 0.05"
18 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2015
70° / 39°F · 0.00"
08/23 average
84° / 47°F · 0.01"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 08/23 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 08/23 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds12.50% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 08/23 launch
12.50%
7.0× season avg 1.79% (+10.71 pts)
First-choice applications
24
Private launches available
3
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Sundays: 1.78%, about 1 in 56
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.