Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, July 10, 2016
River flow2.33 ft
Actual · 07/10/2016
2.33 ft; discharge 1,280 cfs
USGS daily
07/10 average
2.63 ft; discharge 1,611 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.30 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 68° / 41°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 07/10 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2016
68° / 41°F · 0.00"
07/10 average
82° / 38°F · 0.01"
18 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2016
77° / 53°F
07/10 average
87° / 52°F · 0.01"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 07/10 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 07/10 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds1.07% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 07/10 launch
1.07%
40% below season avg 1.79% (−0.72 pts)
First-choice applications
373
Private launches available
4
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Sundays: 1.78%, about 1 in 56
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.