Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, August 25, 2016
River flow1.62 ft
Actual · 08/25/2016
1.62 ft; discharge 599 cfs
USGS daily
08/25 average
1.76 ft; discharge 697 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.14 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 73° / 26°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 08/25 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2016
73° / 26°F · 0.00"
08/25 average
78° / 31°F · 0.01"
19 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2016
76° / 42°F · 0.00"
08/25 average
82° / 46°F · 0.04"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 08/25 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 08/25 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds3.23% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 08/25 launch
3.23%
1.8× season avg 1.79% (+1.44 pts)
First-choice applications
31
Private launches available
1
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Thursdays: 2.10%, about 1 in 48
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.