Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, July 8, 2018
River flow2.52 ft
Actual · 07/08/2018
2.52 ft; discharge 1,480 cfs
USGS daily
07/08 average
2.72 ft; discharge 1,735 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.20 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 80° / 44°F · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 07/08 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2018
80° / 44°F
07/08 average
81° / 35°F · 0.01"
17 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2018
93° / 52°F · 0.00"
07/08 average
87° / 52°F · 0.01"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 07/08 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 07/08 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds0.63% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 07/08 launch
0.63%
65% below season avg 1.79% (−1.16 pts)
First-choice applications
477
Private launches available
3
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Sundays: 1.78%, about 1 in 56
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.