Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, July 11, 2018
River flow2.42 ft
Actual · 07/11/2018
2.42 ft; discharge 1,370 cfs
USGS daily
07/11 average
2.59 ft; discharge 1,551 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.17 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 82° / 29°F · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 07/11 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2018
82° / 29°F
07/11 average
80° / 36°F · 0.01"
18 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2018
96° / 51°F · 0.00"
07/11 average
87° / 52°F · 0.01"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 07/11 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 07/11 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds1.00% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 07/11 launch
1.00%
44% below season avg 1.79% (−0.79 pts)
First-choice applications
301
Private launches available
3
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Wednesdays: 1.90%, about 1 in 53
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.