Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, August 11, 2018
River flow1.85 ft
Actual · 08/11/2018
1.85 ft; discharge 808 cfs
USGS daily
08/11 average
1.91 ft; discharge 824 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.06 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 95° / 36°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 08/11 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2018
95° / 36°F · 0.00"
08/11 average
79° / 34°F · 0.01"
19 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2018
89° / 53°F · 0.00"
08/11 average
84° / 49°F · 0.05"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 08/11 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 08/11 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds4.65% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 08/11 launch
4.65%
2.6× season avg 1.79% (+2.86 pts)
First-choice applications
86
Private launches available
4
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Saturdays: 2.81%, about 1 in 36
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.