Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, August 10, 2020
River flow1.86 ft
Actual · 08/10/2020
1.86 ft; discharge 812 cfs
USGS daily
08/10 average
1.92 ft; discharge 837 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.06 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 80° / 32°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 08/10 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2020
80° / 32°F · 0.00"
08/10 average
79° / 35°F · 0.04"
19 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2020
86° / 44°F · 0.00"
08/10 average
83° / 49°F · 0.03"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 08/10 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 08/10 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds4.17% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 08/10 launch
4.17%
2.3× season avg 1.79% (+2.38 pts)
First-choice applications
72
Private launches available
3
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Mondays: 1.05%, about 1 in 95
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.