Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, May 30, 2021
River flow3.35 ft
Actual · 05/30/2021
3.35 ft; discharge 2,630 cfs
USGS daily
05/30 average
5.14 ft; discharge 5,938 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 1.79 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 67° / 22°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 05/30 average: 83% of peak melted · 5.2 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2021
67° / 22°F · 0.00"
05/30 average
63° / 29°F · 0.04"
17 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2021
73° / 35°F · 0.00"
05/30 average
72° / 43°F · 0.02"
18 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 05/30 average: 83% of peak melted · 5.2 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 05/30 average: 57% of peak melted · 19.6 in SWE
Lottery odds7.02% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 05/30 launch
7.02%
3.9× season avg 1.79% (+5.23 pts)
First-choice applications
57
Private launches available
4
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Sundays: 1.78%, about 1 in 56
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.