Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, July 14, 2021
River flow1.71 ft
Actual · 07/14/2021
1.71 ft; discharge 682 cfs
USGS daily
07/14 average
2.47 ft; discharge 1,413 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.76 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 85° / 36°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 07/14 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2021
85° / 36°F · 0.00"
07/14 average
80° / 37°F · 0.04"
18 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2021
93° / 51°F · 0.00"
07/14 average
87° / 52°F · 0.01"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 07/14 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 07/14 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds0.54% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 07/14 launch
0.54%
70% below season avg 1.79% (−1.25 pts)
First-choice applications
559
Private launches available
3
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Wednesdays: 1.90%, about 1 in 53
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.