Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, July 20, 2021
River flow1.70 ft
Actual · 07/20/2021
1.70 ft; discharge 676 cfs
USGS daily
07/20 average
2.26 ft; discharge 1,169 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.56 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 69° / 51°F · 0.11" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 07/20 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2021
69° / 51°F · 0.11"
07/20 average
82° / 34°F · 0.01"
18 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2021
78° / 58°F · 0.02"
07/20 average
90° / 52°F · 0.00"
19 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 07/20 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 07/20 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds1.20% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 07/20 launch
1.20%
33% below season avg 1.79% (−0.59 pts)
First-choice applications
249
Private launches available
3
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Tuesdays: 1.54%, about 1 in 65
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.