Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, July 31, 2021
River flow1.56 ft
Actual · 07/31/2021
1.56 ft; discharge 529 cfs
USGS daily
07/31 average
2.04 ft; discharge 944 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.48 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 90° / 45°F · 0.01" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 07/31 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2021
90° / 45°F · 0.01"
07/31 average
84° / 37°F · 0.04"
17 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2021
100° / 55°F · 0.00"
07/31 average
90° / 52°F · 0.01"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 07/31 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 07/31 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds3.33% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 07/31 launch
3.33%
1.9× season avg 1.79% (+1.54 pts)
First-choice applications
150
Private launches available
5
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Saturdays: 2.81%, about 1 in 36
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.