Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, August 2, 2021
River flow1.69 ft
Actual · 08/02/2021
1.69 ft; discharge 629 cfs
USGS daily
08/02 average
2.01 ft; discharge 915 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.32 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 71° / 54°F · 0.13" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 08/02 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2021
71° / 54°F · 0.13"
08/02 average
83° / 37°F · 0.01"
19 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2021
89° / 59°F · 0.27"
08/02 average
89° / 52°F · 0.03"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 08/02 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 08/02 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds4.17% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 08/02 launch
4.17%
2.3× season avg 1.79% (+2.38 pts)
First-choice applications
72
Private launches available
3
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Mondays: 1.05%, about 1 in 95
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.