Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, August 12, 2021
River flow1.48 ft
Actual · 08/12/2021
1.48 ft; discharge 469 cfs
USGS daily
08/12 average
1.89 ft; discharge 809 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.41 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 88° / 34°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 08/12 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2021
88° / 34°F · 0.00"
08/12 average
80° / 34°F · 0.01"
19 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2021
94° / 50°F · 0.00"
08/12 average
86° / 50°F · 0.00"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 08/12 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 08/12 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds12.90% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 08/12 launch
12.90%
7.2× season avg 1.79% (+11.11 pts)
First-choice applications
31
Private launches available
4
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Thursdays: 2.10%, about 1 in 48
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.