Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, August 17, 2021
River flow1.45 ft
Actual · 08/17/2021
1.45 ft; discharge 447 cfs
USGS daily
08/17 average
1.82 ft; discharge 747 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.37 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 88° / 38°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 08/17 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2021
88° / 38°F · 0.00"
08/17 average
83° / 33°F · 0.00"
19 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2021
90° / 53°F · 0.02"
08/17 average
85° / 49°F · 0.00"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 08/17 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 08/17 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds9.68% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 08/17 launch
9.68%
5.4× season avg 1.79% (+7.89 pts)
First-choice applications
31
Private launches available
3
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Tuesdays: 1.54%, about 1 in 65
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.