Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, August 18, 2021
River flow1.45 ft
Actual · 08/18/2021
1.45 ft; discharge 449 cfs
USGS daily
08/18 average
1.80 ft; discharge 734 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.35 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 75° / 32°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 08/18 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2021
75° / 32°F · 0.00"
08/18 average
82° / 33°F · 0.00"
17 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2021
87° / 53°F · 0.05"
08/18 average
86° / 49°F · 0.01"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 08/18 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 08/18 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds4.17% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 08/18 launch
4.17%
2.3× season avg 1.79% (+2.38 pts)
First-choice applications
72
Private launches available
3
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Wednesdays: 1.90%, about 1 in 53
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.