Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, August 21, 2021
River flow1.49 ft
Actual · 08/21/2021
1.49 ft; discharge 480 cfs
USGS daily
08/21 average
1.81 ft; discharge 742 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.32 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 73° / 33°F · 0.02" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 08/21 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2021
73° / 33°F · 0.02"
08/21 average
78° / 33°F · 0.05"
19 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2021
78° / 51°F · 0.19"
08/21 average
83° / 50°F · 0.03"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 08/21 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 08/21 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds19.05% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 08/21 launch
19.05%
10.6× season avg 1.79% (+17.26 pts)
First-choice applications
21
Private launches available
4
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Saturdays: 2.81%, about 1 in 36
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.