Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, August 27, 2021
River flow1.44 ft
Actual · 08/27/2021
1.44 ft; discharge 441 cfs
USGS daily
08/27 average
1.77 ft; discharge 701 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.33 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 72° / 27°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 08/27 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2021
72° / 27°F · 0.00"
08/27 average
77° / 32°F · 0.06"
19 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2021
78° / 40°F · 0.00"
08/27 average
82° / 48°F · 0.04"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 08/27 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 08/27 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds9.09% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 08/27 launch
9.09%
5.1× season avg 1.79% (+7.30 pts)
First-choice applications
22
Private launches available
2
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Fridays: 2.17%, about 1 in 46
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.