Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, July 26, 2022
River flow2.21 ft
Actual · 07/26/2022
2.21 ft; discharge 1,150 cfs
USGS daily
07/26 average
2.12 ft; discharge 1,029 cfs
20-year USGS
Above average by 0.09 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 86° / 36°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 07/26 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2022
86° / 36°F · 0.00"
07/26 average
82° / 36°F · 0.01"
17 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2022
91° / 52°F · 0.00"
07/26 average
90° / 52°F · 0.09"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 07/26 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 07/26 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds3.08% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 07/26 launch
3.08%
1.7× season avg 1.79% (+1.29 pts)
First-choice applications
130
Private launches available
4
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Tuesdays: 1.54%, about 1 in 65
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.