Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, August 5, 2025
River flow1.78 ft
Actual · 08/05/2025
1.78 ft; discharge 716 cfs
USGS daily
08/05 average
1.96 ft; discharge 874 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.18 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 75° / 30°F · 0.15" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 08/05 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2025
75° / 30°F · 0.15"
08/05 average
81° / 36°F · 0.02"
19 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2025
77° / 45°F · 0.07"
08/05 average
87° / 52°F · 0.02"
19 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 08/05 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 08/05 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds4.12% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 08/05 launch
4.12%
2.3× season avg 1.79% (+2.33 pts)
First-choice applications
97
Private launches available
4
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Tuesdays: 1.54%, about 1 in 65
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.