Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, August 14, 2025
River flow1.62 ft
Actual · 08/14/2025
1.62 ft; discharge 579 cfs
USGS daily
08/14 average
1.89 ft; discharge 805 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.27 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 86° / 32°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 08/14 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2025
86° / 32°F · 0.00"
08/14 average
80° / 33°F · 0.01"
19 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2025
98° / 50°F · 0.00"
08/14 average
85° / 49°F · 0.01"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 08/14 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 08/14 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds6.25% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 08/14 launch
6.25%
3.5× season avg 1.79% (+4.46 pts)
First-choice applications
48
Private launches available
3
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Thursdays: 2.10%, about 1 in 48
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.