Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, August 28, 2025
River flow1.88 ft
Actual · 08/28/2025
1.88 ft; discharge 800 cfs
USGS daily
08/28 average
1.76 ft; discharge 690 cfs
20-year USGS
Above average by 0.12 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 62° / 47°F · 0.16" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 08/28 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2025
62° / 47°F · 0.16"
08/28 average
76° / 31°F · 0.02"
19 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2025
68° / 60°F · 0.16"
08/28 average
82° / 47°F · 0.02"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 08/28 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 08/28 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds8.70% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 08/28 launch
8.70%
4.9× season avg 1.79% (+6.91 pts)
First-choice applications
23
Private launches available
2
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Thursdays: 2.10%, about 1 in 48
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.