Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, August 4, 2026
River flow1.77 ft
Actual · 08/04/2026
1.77 ft; discharge 704 cfs
Provisional
08/04 average
1.97 ft; discharge 885 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.20 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 78° / 26°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 08/04 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2026
78° / 26°F · 0.00"
08/04 average
82° / 35°F · 0.01"
17 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2026
No observation
08/04 average
88° / 52°F · 0.00"
19 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 08/04 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 08/04 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds1.65% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 08/04 launch
1.65%
8% below season avg 1.79% (−0.14 pts)
First-choice applications
182
Private launches available
3
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Tuesdays: 1.54%, about 1 in 65
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.