Planning date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, May 29, 2027
River flow5.16 ft
Daily reading
No daily actual yet — this date is not in the past.
05/29 average
5.16 ft; discharge 6,018 cfs
20-year USGS
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 62° / 31°F · 0.06" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 05/29 average: 81% of peak melted · 5.6 in SWE
Stanley, ID
05/29 average: 62° / 31°F · 0.06" · 18 years
Middle Fork Lodge
05/29 average: 60° / 37°F · 0.08" · 6 years · averages for future dates only; station ended 2013
Salmon, ID
05/29 average: 70° / 42°F · 0.06" · 19 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 05/29 average: 81% of peak melted · 5.6 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 05/29 average: 54% of peak melted · 20.5 in SWE
Lottery odds7.02% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 05/29 launch
7.02%
3.9× season avg 1.79% (+5.23 pts)
First-choice applications
57
Private launches available
4
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Saturdays: 2.81%, about 1 in 36
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.