Planning date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, May 31, 2027
River flow5.11 ft
Daily reading
No daily actual yet — this date is not in the past.
05/31 average
5.11 ft; discharge 5,864 cfs
20-year USGS
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 65° / 30°F · 0.02" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 05/31 average: 84% of peak melted · 4.7 in SWE
Stanley, ID
05/31 average: 65° / 30°F · 0.02" · 19 years
Middle Fork Lodge
05/31 average: 71° / 39°F · 0.01" · 7 years · averages for future dates only; station ended 2013
Salmon, ID
05/31 average: 73° / 43°F · 0.03" · 19 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 05/31 average: 84% of peak melted · 4.7 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 05/31 average: 59% of peak melted · 18.5 in SWE
Lottery odds8.89% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 05/31 launch
8.89%
5.0× season avg 1.79% (+7.10 pts)
First-choice applications
45
Private launches available
4
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Mondays: 1.05%, about 1 in 95
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.