Planning date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, July 4, 2027
River flow2.96 ft
Daily reading
No daily actual yet — this date is not in the past.
07/04 average
2.96 ft; discharge 2,069 cfs
20-year USGS
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 78° / 34°F · 0.01" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 07/04 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
07/04 average: 78° / 34°F · 0.01" · 17 years
Middle Fork Lodge
07/04 average: 86° / 46°F · 0.02" · 7 years · averages for future dates only; station ended 2013
Salmon, ID
07/04 average: 86° / 51°F · 0.01" · 20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 07/04 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 07/04 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.2 in SWE
Lottery odds1.37% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 07/04 launch
1.37%
23% below season avg 1.79% (−0.42 pts)
First-choice applications
365
Private launches available
5
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Sundays: 1.78%, about 1 in 56
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.