Planning date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, July 21, 2027
River flow2.23 ft
Daily reading
No daily actual yet — this date is not in the past.
07/21 average
2.23 ft; discharge 1,140 cfs
20-year USGS
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 82° / 34°F · 0.01" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 07/21 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
07/21 average: 82° / 34°F · 0.01" · 18 years
Middle Fork Lodge
07/21 average: 88° / 48°F · 0.00" · 7 years · averages for future dates only; station ended 2013
Salmon, ID
07/21 average: 91° / 53°F · 0.00" · 19 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 07/21 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 07/21 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds0.76% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 07/21 launch
0.76%
58% below season avg 1.79% (−1.03 pts)
First-choice applications
393
Private launches available
3
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Wednesdays: 1.90%, about 1 in 53
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.