Planning date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, July 31, 2027
River flow2.04 ft
Daily reading
No daily actual yet — this date is not in the past.
07/31 average
2.04 ft; discharge 944 cfs
20-year USGS
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 84° / 37°F · 0.04" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 07/31 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
07/31 average: 84° / 37°F · 0.04" · 17 years
Middle Fork Lodge
07/31 average: 85° / 47°F · 0.01" · 7 years · averages for future dates only; station ended 2013
Salmon, ID
07/31 average: 90° / 52°F · 0.01" · 20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 07/31 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 07/31 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds3.33% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 07/31 launch
3.33%
1.9× season avg 1.79% (+1.54 pts)
First-choice applications
150
Private launches available
5
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Saturdays: 2.81%, about 1 in 36
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.